Thursday, 1 October 2015

Science Lab - Scientific Method

KQ7 - showing scientific method.
Q1 - define compile and use; a useful term in math and science
Produce by assembling information collected from other sources.

Sun Spots & The Global Average Temperature

Problem:
I am interested in figuring out the sunspot inactivity and how it effects global temperature.  In the 1700's a period of solar inactivity (the Maunder Minimum) was believed to have caused the "little ice age".  This is important to know because understanding our past helps us prepare for the future.

Hypothesis:
I believe that sunspot inactivity only partially effects global temperature because I believe other factors also affect global temperature.  

Materials & Sources Used:
Sources: http://solar science.msfc.nasa.gov/sunspotcycle/news.html
http://www.uni.edu/morgans/astro/course/notes/section2/news.html
38.kbJPEGimages
www.sidc.be

Materials:
Research information



Sunspot charts

Global temperature charts

Graph paper
Markers
Calculator
Ruler

Procedures:
• I read the research of sunspot inactivity & Mauder Minimum.
• I choose a specific era based on temperature.
• Then I compiled temperature data.
• And then I compared the sunspot chart to www.sidc.be text data because the sunspot chart was hard to read.



• Then I compiled the sunspot data.



• Then I compared the results.
• For a more clear picture I compiled the data for each 11 year sunspot cycle to get an average. 

1953-1963
°C.         Sunspot
12.         20
12.           6
11.         50
11.5.      200
11.25.   215
11.25.   215
11.25.   215
10.75.   159
11.        75
11.        56
11.5.     39
-----------------
124.5.  1250. Total
÷11.      ÷11
-----------------
11.31.  113.63.  Cycle averages

1964-1974
°C.        Sunspot
11.         16
11.         22
10.7.      65
11.         137
10.7.      151
11.         150
11.         150
10.7.       94
11.          97
11.5.       49
11.5.       50
------------------
121.1.   981.  Total
÷11.       ÷11
------------------
11.         89.18.  Cycle average

1975-1985
°C.          Sunspot
11.          55
11.          18
11.5.       39
10.5.       136
11.5.       215
12.          215
12.         198
11.         161
11.          96
11.          60
11.          20
--------------------
123.5.    1180. Total
÷11.        ÷11
--------------------
11.22.     107.27.   Cycle average

Results:
I observed a difference in temperature in relation to sunspot inactivity.  

Conclusion:
I've learned that sunspot inactivity does have an effect on global temperature & might be able to cause a little ice.  However I think pollution and the melting of Pilar ice caps have a bigger effect on climate change and likely to cause a full ice age.

2 comments:

  1. Great idea with creating a blog for submitting work! Now that I know Wiko is computer savvy we can do a bit more. Have her complete this quiz. Getting WHMIS certified is a good thing for a resume and employment for young people.
    http://aixsafety.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/IntroWHMISaix.htm
    Cheers,
    Mr. P.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Koko,

    Nice work! Quite brave for you to wade into this debate in class, as it's considered a very controversial subject. One thing you might do to really impress your teacher would be to carry out a frequency analysis:

    1. look for period04 (freely available, runs on everything, very easy to use.)
    2. load the temperature data and the sunspot data into the program
    3. generate a 'periodogram'. This simply shows how amplitude or 'power' as a function of frequency or period. If there are peaks in the periodograms for temperature and suspots at the same periods, it's that much more likely that the phenomena are causally linked.

    You also might consider expanding your conclusion a bit:
    - you state there's a relation, but is it a 1:1 relation (i.e., the two track perfectly) or is it a partial relationship (it looks like sunspots have some influence, but are not the only factor)?
    - what other factors might influence climate change?

    Also, in the earlier sections (Problem, Hypothesis), maybe say a bit more about the context: why do we care if sunspots influence climate change? What do most people believe? What other factors might influence climate change?

    To be clear, I think this is already very good work :) But even the best work can always be improved!

    ReplyDelete